Flying Oskar: The End of the Mark Sanford Era

Oh what a difference a few months can make. Back in March, I wrote a piece called “Introducing Presidential Candidate Mark Sanford”. Back then, if I’d been asked to choose one Republican leader who was best tapping into the anger of the conservative base I wouldn’t have hesitated to name our own esteemed Governor. Sanford’s seemingly principled stand in taking on President Obama on the stimulus plan was scoring him major points among the hard right nationally as well as in South Carolina. National media coverage abounded. Mark Sanford was a rising star in the GOP, and was positioning himself well to become a front runner for the 2012 Republican Presidential primary.

All that changed on June 24^th.

After a little less than a week of playing “Where’s Waldo” with the people of South Carolina, Mark Sanford admitted that he’d been in Argentina visiting his mistress of more than a year María Belén Chapur. I’ll spare all the sordid details since they’ve been reported ad infinitum in practically every media outlet in America both large and small because for me, there’s really only one question that’s been burning in my mind lately. What does Sanford’s fall from conservative grace mean for the political landscape in South Carolina, and more specifically what does it mean for the Spartanburg legislative delegation which has several of Sanford’s allies on it.

Sanford championed a part of the SCGOP that likes to call itself the “reform” movement. As far as I can tell, what they mean by reform is extreme economic libertarianism, but I’ll yield that one point and use their terminology just for the sake of labeling. The “reform” politicians like to talk about doing away with the South Carolina “good old boy” system and replacing it with some sort of Howard Rich funded, anti-government capitalist utopia. To help place them on the ideological map, follow this little example on public education funding. Person “A” believes we should devote more funding to public education, and person “B” believes we should reduce funding or keep it at the same level. Person “C” disagrees with both “A” and “B” and believes we should privatize the public education system and let the poor eat cake. Up until last month Mark Sanford was the public face for person “C’s” views.

The affair and Sanford’s refusal so far to resign has thrown gas on a fire that’s been burning between the “reformers” and the more moderate members of the Republican Party. Calls for his resignation have come mostly from political opponents with few of the Governor’s allies coming out of the woodwork to say much of anything. Most people have speculated that Sanford’s refusal to resign and save his “reform ”faction the embarrassment of seeing his face in the paper every day next to some tawdry story about sexual infidelity stems from the fact that his replacement would be fellow Republican Lt. Governor Andre Bauer.  Bauer, who more often than not has been a political opponent of Governor Sanford, is widely expected to run for Governor in 2010, and many speculate that the last thing Mark Sanford would want to do is give Bauer a leg up in the race by allowing him to become Governor once he resigns.

And so, the fire burns on.

In all likelihood, Sanford will be forced to resign based simply on the forces of political gravity. Over half his party’s elected leaders disliked him to begin with, and have no interest defending him now. Meanwhile, many of his allies are trying to duck for cover till the storm goes away, which of course can only happen if Governor Sanford steps down. Sanford for his part seems to be trying his best to ignore the denouncements of his enemies as well as the poll numbers that say 69% of South Carolinians believe he should resign. He seems convinced that if he just lays low for a little while, it’ll all blow over and he can go back to being the most ineffective state governor in the United States. To that I say: Good luck sir.

Once Sanford is out—whether it be from resigning or not—there’s still the question of his ideological followers. What happens to them and more importantly, their movement?

There’s no shortage of people looking to take up Sanford’s libertarian banner in the SC GOP but from the looks of things, none of them have a high-enough profile to legitimately lead the movement, and that makes the “reformers” a kind of rudderless ship. It’s pretty hard not to see the “reformers” of the South Carolina Republican landscape becoming more and more marginalized as the less reactionary elements of their party seize power. Before the scandal broke, it was possible that Sanford allies like Rep. Nikki Haley or Sen. Larry Grooms would’ve been able to make serious runs at the Governor’s seat in 2010 with Sanford’s endorsement and the backing of his political network. That scenario now seems much less likely.

For Spartanburg, it means our legislative delegation will likely be on the outside looking in. It’s hard to imagine the conservative extremists in our delegation like Rep. Joey Millwood, Sen. Shane Martin, and Sen. Lee Bright doing anything much in the future except opposing the more moderate elements of their own party. A freshman group that has already distinguished itself by its stunning ineffectiveness and inability to produce anything worthwhile for its constituents will only founder in obscurity once its ideological face is out of office and replaced by a more moderate Republican or—horror of horrors—maybe even a Democrat.

That’s the silver lining in all this from my point of view. Sanford’s inability to live up to those conservative “family values” principals has opened a huge door for the South Carolina Democratic Party. The state is in economic and fiscal turmoil right now and if they’re smart, the state and local Democratic Party will go out of its way to make itself the party of pragmatic solutions. They should emphasize that the GOP, under Governor Sanford, has been more interested in ideological grandstanding than in job creation and economic recovery. They should point out that while Governor Sanford and his allies in the General Assembly fought a dogmatic war over federal stimulus funds, South Carolina’s unemployment rate skyrocketed. Sanford’s followers are vulnerable, and there’s no reason our local Democratic Party couldn’t use this tactic on right-wing extremists like Rep. Millwood in 2010.

Governor Sanford’s indiscretion will invariably lead to a serious change in the political landscape here in South Carolina, but nobody can say for certain what kind of change we’ll have. Will the “reformers” be able to survive once their biggest champion is gone? Will the Democratic Party be able to use Sanford’s failures as an opportunity to win voters over in the name of practicality? 2010 was supposed to be the year when the “reformers” had their Armageddon with the mainstream conservatives for the soul of the South Carolina GOP. Now though, it looks like that script may have to be rewritten. Sanford has stirred the muddy water of the state’s political scene, and there’s no telling what it’ll all look like once that water settles again.